Sunday, February 17, 2008

How Can Bush Help McCain ?

"Baghdad ( Reuters) The U.S. military said on Sunday [February 17, 2008] it had evidence Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq were increasingly using secret weapons to attack U.S. and Iraqi forces."

This includes rogue elements of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mehdi Army. Al-Sadr has voluntarily abided by a ceasefire for the past 6 months. Why? Probably bribed. But now that the "surge has worked" largely because of paying/bribing Sunni militias $10 per day to stop fighting their usefulness may have been fully realized.

But the new goal of the Bush Administration is to get McCain elected. So how best can Bush help? Bush is a unique super delegate. He can change the political calculus with a simple command from his postion as commander in chief. Suppose Bush provoked al-Sadr by attacking his forces? Would a reignition of Baghdad fighting help or hurt McCain? I'll bet that there is at least a 2 out of 3 chance that Bush will do something to reheat Baghdad .This would pull together again the republican base and would take some of the democratic momentum away no matter what Obama or Clinton say.

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